Monday Morning Scoop - Adobe Forecasts 4.8% Bump in Holiday Sales

Adobe Forecasts 4.8% Bump in Holiday Sales

It’s time to celebrate the holidays. Yes, those holidays.

Adobe Analytics recently forecast holiday sales (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31) to increase by 4.8% year-over-year (YoY).

And right on cue, many of Vestar’s major retail tenants such as Target, Walmart, Kohl’s, and Best Buy are kicking off holiday campaigns as early as last week.

“We anticipate that consumer spending will increase leading into the holidays, to take advantage of early sales and special offers,” Miles Sanchez, Chief Operating Officer at Vestar, tells GlobeSt.com.

Adobe said never-before-seen discounts, and the increased usage of the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) flexible spending method will drive spending this season as consumers look to stretch their budgets when making purchases. Additionally, shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a major milestone, surpassing desktop, and driving over half (51.2%) of all online spending this season.

Retailers that have found their groove in recent years are poised to leverage shopping entertainment events and improved multi-channel management to increase their sales in 2023.

Mark Sigal, Chief Executive Officer at Datex Property Solutions, tells GlobeSt.com, “Brick and mortar retail is the yin to online shopping’s yang, delivering see-touch-feel and an experiential component that online can’t match.

“If anything, retailers and shopping center owners have leveled up these skills since re-launching the retail experience post-COVID.

Sigal said Datex’s expectations are more and better orchestrated holiday events at shopping centers to drive deeper engagement and repeat visits.

Similarly, he expects a continuation of the trend toward tighter integration across online and offline channels (i.e., omnichannel), “so consumers can browse where they want, buy where and when they want, and either pick up in-store or opt for home delivery,” Sigal said.

“This gets to the nut that retail, be it brick and mortar or online, is as much about lifestyle as it is transactional, something that the best retailers and shopping center owners keep front and center.”

Sigal said the larger question is whether the consumer, who materially increased spending post-COVID, will be cautious or optimistic when setting their holiday budget in the face of an uneven economic environment.

“We anticipate nominal slowing of spending relative to 2022 levels, with consumers shifting their spend allocation towards fewer favored retail categories,” Sigal said.

Sanchez said he is continuing to see consumers push their spending on retail goods, services, and experiences both in-store and online, aside from opposing economic factors such as higher interest rates or student loan payments resuming.

“Our retail tenants [continue to] greatly improve their omnichannel strategies to maximize exposure to customers, providing them with various ways to shop, and our properties also host hundreds of free events each year to better serve the communities we operate in.”

Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing at Adobe, said in prepared remarks that despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, “we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods.

“BNPL in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place.”

BNPL is expected to drive 16.9% more spending this year – $17 billion in online spending vs. $14.5 billion in 2022, according to Adobe.

By: Richard Berger
Source: GlobeStreet